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Release Archives | U.S. Census Division Economic Indices January 2012
Decision Analyst's U.S. Economic Index Begins 2012
With A Bang;
The Mountain Census Division Economic Index Jumps
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index jumped 4 points
in January to kick off the new year. The Index rose from 93 in December 2011 to
97 in January 2012. The Mountain Census Division had the highest jump of all the
Census Divisions, increasing 5 points from 90 in December 2011 to 95 in January
2012. For most of 2011, the U.S. Economic Index’s trend has been flat to
down slightly. The strong uptick to start January suggests some underlying vitality
in the U.S. economy. If this uptick continues for 2 or 3 months, it could be a
harbinger of faster economic growth later in 2012. The U.S. Economic Index tends
to anticipate overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months. The graphs below show
the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years and past 10 years, respectively:
“A real economic recovery might just be on the horizon,”
said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The number of
positive economic signs is growing, despite the fact that most people in the U.S.
continue to experience economic headwinds. High unemployment (including long-term
discouraged workers) continues to reduce consumer buying power and negatively
affect consumer confidence. Lack of credit and lack of capital for small businesses
are major barriers to growth. High debt levels, public and private, are reducing
the funds available for spending and investment. Lastly, gridlock in Washington,
indecision in Europe, and slowdowns in China are making major corporations reluctant
to make major strategic investments,” said Thomas.
The West South Central Division appears to have the strongest economy, with
an Index of 100. The South Atlantic Division appears to be the weakest, with a
score of 92. (See map below.)
The trends for the various census divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. The South Atlantic Census Division and East
South Central Division both increased 2 points. The South Atlantic Census Division
increased from 90 in December 2011 to 92 in January 2012, and the East South Central
Census Division increased from 91 in December 2011 to 93 in January 2012. The
West South Central Census Division was the only division to see a decline; it
went down 1 point from 101 in December 2011 to 100 in January 2012. The division-by-division
results for the past 10 years are presented in the following graphs. Remember,
the graphs portray 3-month moving averages.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model.
The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective
countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month
in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United
Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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