Home | Press Room | Press Release Archives | Economic Index December 2010

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For Immediate Release
January 6, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index ended 2010 with an Index of 96, a decrease of 3 points from November. Overall the U.S. Economic Index has been gradually trending upward since the decade low of 85 in January and February 2009. Since the U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months), the Index is forecasting an expanding U.S. economy for 2011. The Index is also indicating that growth in 2011 will be slow and fragile. The ongoing stimulus from deficit spending and quantitative easing might tend to accelerate the pace of economic growth as the year progresses. Here is the U.S. Economic Index from December 1999 to December 2010.

“The past 11 years started on a high note with the U.S. Economic Index peaking at 132 during the dot.com bubble. Then, the Index trended sideways in the aftermath of 9/11, before starting its downward slide during 2006 to foretell the recession’s start in fall of 2007,” according to Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The Index currently indicates an economy in the doldrums. Unemployment continues to be a major problem (our tracking data indicates an unemployment rate around 16%, similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ U-6 measure of unemployment). The world financial system appears to be moving forward—but on crutches. The risks of financial meltdowns in 2011, especially in Europe, are of great concern, and these risks could dampen economic growth in 2011. The housing market continues to be a major risk factor, as are the possibility of gridlock in Washington, D.C., and the growing national debt. Despite all of these headwinds, we think the U.S. economy will continue to expand over the next 12 months,” said Thomas.

"The European Union remains less than robust,” said Thomas. "The clouds of financial stress hang over Europe as Ireland, Portugal, the U.K., Greece, and perhaps Italy and France struggle to deal with excessive debt and less than stellar economies."

International Index

The table below compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices in other countries. Brazil, China and India have the highest scores (127, 125 and 123, respectively). France, Spain and the United Kingdom have the lowest scores (79, 83 and 83, respectively). (See table on next page.)

 

Census Divisions

The West North Central and the West South Central Divisions have the highest scores (102 and 101, respectively), while the East South Central Division has the lowest score at 92. The center of the U.S. is benefiting from higher prices for farm commodities (see map below.) and higher prices for energy.

 

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.

Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The 33-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst owns and operates American Consumer Opinion® Online—one of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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