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Release Archives | International Economic Indices September 2011
For Immediate Release
October 5, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices for
the U.S., Italy, and the UK Drop in September
Arlington, Texas—Chances of a double-dip recession increase as the Decision
Analyst U.S. Economic Index dropped from 93 in August 2011 to 89 in September
2011. This is the lowest the Index has been since March 2009 (which had an Index
of 88). The Italian Index dropped 6 points, from 85 in August to 79 in September,
and the U.K. Index dropped 4 points from 79 in August to 75 in September. The
Indices for several countries have declined for the past 2 months, suggesting
continued economic stagnation for the balance of 2011 and into the first half
of 2012. The Decision Analyst Economic Indices are leading indicators for their
respective countries and tend to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to
12 months in each respective country. Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the
past 3 years:
“High unemployment, government cutbacks and layoffs (at the local, state,
and federals levels), tight corporate purse strings, and a weak housing market
continue to take a toll on the economy. The steep decline of stock markets this
year is making consumers more fearful about their finances and the future. The
U.S. economy is teetering on the edge of another recession,” said Jerry
W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “However, not all of the news
is bad. Falling commodity prices (especially oil and gasoline) are stimulants
to the U.S. economy—and the world economy. If commodity prices continue
to fall, the chances are good that another recession could be avoided.
“The probability of a Greek sovereign default within the next few months
(not to mention Portugal, Ireland, Italy, or Spain) continues to pose risks for
the financial markets and the world economy. The European Union is mired in the
quicksands of excessive debt, fragile economies, and inadequate governance. These
risks will threaten world economic growth in 2012,” said Thomas.
International Economic Indices
The graphs below compare the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s
Economic Indices for other countries. In Europe, Germany has the strongest economy
with a score of 101, with France and the United Kingdom tied for the lowest score
at 75. In South America, Brazil’s Index is 122 (a rapidly expanding economy)
and in Asia, China scores 120.
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices for the individual countries for the past
10 years are below.
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, and Spain are a 3-month moving average to
smooth out month-to-month fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the
current month with the 2 previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model.
The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective
countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month
in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United
Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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