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Release Archives | U.S. Census Division Economic Indices September 2011
For Immediate Release
October 4, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Drops
In September;
The Middle Atlantic Census Division Sees Decline
Arlington, Texas—Chances of a double-dip recession increased as the
Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index dropped from 93 in August 2011 to 89 in September
2011. The Index has declined for the past 2 months, suggesting continued economic
stagnation for the balance of 2011 and into the first half of 2012. The Middle
Atlantic Census Division has declined 5 points, from 95 in August to 90 in September.
This is the lowest the Index has been since March 2009 (which had an Index of
88). The U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator that tends to foreshadow overall
economic activity by 6 to 12 months.
Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years.
“High unemployment, government cutbacks and layoffs (at
the local, state, and federals levels), tight corporate purse strings, and a weak
housing market continue to take a toll on the economy. The steep decline of stock
markets this year is making consumers more fearful about their finances and the
future. The U.S. economy is teetering on the edge of another recession,”
said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “However, not all
of the news is bad. Falling commodity prices (especially oil and gasoline) are
stimulants to the U.S. economy—and the world economy. If commodity prices
continue to fall, the chances are good that another recession could be avoided.
“The probability of a Greek sovereign default within the next few months
(not to mention Portugal, Ireland, Italy, or Spain) continues to pose risks for
the financial markets and the world economy. The European Union is mired in the
quicksands of excessive debt, fragile economies, and inadequate governance. These
risks will threaten world economic growth in 2012,” said Thomas.
The center of the United States has the highest Economic Index scores, with
the West South Central Division at 96 and the West North Central at 95. The Eastern
one-third of the U.S. appears to be relatively weak. The East South Central has
the lowest score at 86. (See map below.)
The trends for the various census divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. The Middle Atlantic Division had the largest
drop, (dropping 5 points, from 95 in August to 90 in September), followed closely
by the East South Central Division (dropping 4 points from 90 in August to 86
in September). The division-by-division results for the past 10 years are presented
in the following graphs. Remember, the graphs portray 3-month moving averages.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model.
The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective
countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month
in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United
Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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