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Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices July 2011
For Immediate Release
August 5, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index For July
Moving Sideways;
The U.S. Pacific Census Division Increases
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index remains at
95 for July 2011, the same as in May and June. The Index has moved sideways or
trended slightly lower over the past 6 or 7 months, suggesting economic sluggishness
in the second half of 2011. Of the U.S. census divisions, the Pacific Division
had the highest increase, going from an Index of 90 in June to 94 in July. The
U.S. Economic Index is a leading indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic
activity by 6 to 12 months). Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years.
Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years.
“The 10-year graph of the U.S. Economic Index indicates
that the economy bottomed out in early 2009 and has not yet regained its prerecession
levels. The U.S. economy has been comparatively weak for a whole decade,”
said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The Index is predicting
a no-growth to slow-growth economy for the second half of 2011. High unemployment
continues to slow any momentum for a recovery. Many city, county, and state governments
are cutting jobs in order to balance budgets. While small businesses are doing
slightly better, they are not planning to hire new employees.
“The economic recovery is fragile, and rising prices threaten to tip
the U.S. back into recession. If gasoline and energy prices decline during the
second half of 2011, that would be a significant stimulus to the economy.”
said Thomas.
The center part of the United States has the highest scores, with the West
South Central Division having a score of 100 and the West North Central having
a score of 98. The East South Central Division has the lowest score (90).
The trends for the various census divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. The Index for the West South Central Division
increased 2 points from 101 in May to 103 in June. The division-by-division
results for the past 10 years are presented in the following graphs. Remember,
the graphs portray 3-month moving averages.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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