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Economic Indices June 2011
For Immediate Release
July 6, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst's U.S. Economic Index in June Unchanged;
The U.S. South Central Census Division Declines
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index remains at
95 for June 2011, the same as in May. The Index has moved sideways or trended
slightly lower over the past 6 or 7 months, suggesting economic sluggishness
in the second half of 2011. The Index for the West South Central Division increased
2 points from 101 in May to 103 in June. The U.S. Economic Index is a leading
indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months).
Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years.
Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years.
“The 10-year graph of the U.S. Economic Index reveals the
severity and the duration of the recession. While it is evident that the Index
bottomed out in early 2009, the long-term view of the Index reveals that the
U.S. economy has not regained its prerecession levels. It’s also instructive
to remember that the U.S. Economic Index stood at 125 in the late 1990s.”
said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The U.S. economy
has been comparatively weak for a whole decade.”
“The Index is predicting a no-growth to slow-growth economy for the second
half of 2011,” said Thomas. “The economic recovery is fragile, and
rising prices threaten to tip the U.S. back into recession. If gasoline and
energy prices decline during the second half of 2011, that would be a significant
stimulus to the economy."
"High unemployment continues to be a persistent drag on the U.S. economy,"
said Thomas. "Many state, county, and city governments are cutting employees
to balance budgets. The U.S. Federal Government will make job cuts in the second
half. Small businesses are doing slightly better, but they are not planning
to hire many new employees—at least not yet.”
The West South Central Division is the only division above 100, with a score
of 103, and at the other end the Mountain Division is the only division with
a score lower than 90, with a score of 88. (See map below.)
The trends for the various census divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. The Index for the West South Central Division
increased 2 points from 101 in May to 103 in June. The division-by-division
results for the past 10 years are presented in the following graphs. Remember,
the graphs portray 3-month moving averages.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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