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Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices April 2011
For Immediate Release
May 5, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Slipping
in April 2011;
The Pacific Division Drops
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index registered
93 for April 2011, a 1-point decline from March’s Index of 94. For the
past 6 months, the U.S. Economic Index has gradually declined, dropping 6 points
from 99 in November 2010. The Pacific Census Division has dropped 7-points from
96 in November 2010 to 89 in April 2011. The U.S. Economic Index is a leading
indicator (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months).
Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years.
Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years.
“The persistent decline of the U.S. Economic Index over
the past six months is worrisome. The Index is predicting a sluggish economy
for the balance of 2011, with growing risks of recession.” said Jerry
W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The recovery is fragile,
and rising prices for food and energy are sapping consumer buying power. Any
major shock to the U.S. economy would easily tip it back into a recession. The
unemployment rate remains high. Many state, county, and city governments are
cutting employees to balance their budgets. Small businesses are doing slightly
better, but still struggling to get access to credit at reasonable rates. Then
there are the debt and deficit problems of the U.S. Government—and Ireland,
Portugal, Greece, Japan, etc.”
The West South Central Division has the only Economic Index score above 100,
with a 101. The South Atlantic has an Index of 93 and the East South Central
has an Index of 96. (The majority of the data collection came before the tornadoes
hit the Southeast on April 27.) Meanwhile, the Pacific Division has the lowest
score with an 89.
The trends for the various census divisions tend to be similar overall, but
regional differences are evident. Since November 2010 the West North Central
and the Mountain Census Divisions have each dropped 5-points, The West North
Central went from 100 in November to 95 in April and the Mountain Division dropped
from 95 to 90. The division-by-division results for the past 10 years are presented
in the following graphs. Remember, the graphs portray 3-month moving averages.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product research,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
The 33-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the
world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology,
medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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