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For Immediate Release
January 6, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index for December 2009 remained unchanged from November—at an Index of 94. Over the course of 2009, the Index moved up from a low point of 85 in January and February to 94 in November and December, as shown in the graph below. Since this Index tends to lead the U.S. economy by nine to 12 months, this sideways movement of the Economic Index is predicting a sluggish economy during 2010. Below is the Economic Index for the past three years.

“The economy is ending 2009 on a positive note for the future, but the ‘recovery’ remains weak and tentative. Record high unemployment (our data indicate a U.S. unemployment rate of around 17%, very similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s broadest measure of unemployment) is a major risk to economic growth in 2010. Lack of credit for businesses and individuals remains a major drag on the U.S. economy. The risk that financial markets will freeze up again during 2010 is substantial. Consumer plans to make durable goods purchases in 2010 are relatively weak,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The U.S. economy is still on life support in the emergency room, and any shock to the system could trigger another downward spiral.”

Census Divisions

The Pacific, Mountain, and South Atlantic Divisions continue to struggle, compared to other sections of the U.S. The West North Central and West South Central appear to be doing better than the rest of the country.

 

International Index

The table below compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices in other countries. Canada, Germany, and Australia appear to be doing slightly better than the U.S., while the emerging markets in China, Brazil, and India have the highest scores of the countries listed. France and Argentina appear to be doing comparatively worse than other countries.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.

Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The 31-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst owns and operates American Consumer Opinion® Online—one of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than seven million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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