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Economic Index
For Immediate Release
July 2, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s Economic Index Predicts Sluggish
Economic Growth for the U.S. and the U.K.
The Decision Analyst Economic Index for the U.S. has trended flat for the past
8 months, and is only up 3 points from June 2009. The U.S. Economic Index registered
95 in June, the same as May. The U.K. Economic Index is also only up 3 points
from June 2009. The U.K. Economic Index registered 89 in June, the same as in
May and April. Meanwhile, China has dropped seven points from a high of 139
in February to 132 in June. Since the Decision Analyst Economic Indices tend
to foreshadow their countries’ economies by six to 12 months, it continues
to signal that economic growth will be sluggish for the second half of 2010
and into the first half of 2011.
“The relative flatness of the Economic Index for the past several months
indicates that the tough economic times are here to stay for a while,”
said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The greatest
limit to economic growth is the lack of access to credit. Consumers are finding
it difficult to borrow money. Small businesses cannot borrow money, even those
with longstanding banking relationships. The lack of credit for small businesses
is prolonging the recession and exacerbating high unemployment. The U.S. government’s
efforts to jumpstart the economy with tax credits for autos and housing appear
to only have borrowed sales from the future. The financial problems at state,
county, school district, and city levels are likewise prolonging the recession,
as public employees are cut from the payrolls and budgets are reduced. Economic
growth in China is slowing, as it is in Europe, further increasing the downside
risks to the global economy,” said Thomas.
Below are the International Economic Indices for the past three years.
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, and Spain are a three-month moving average to smooth out month-to-month
fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the
two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 32-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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