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Press Release Archives | U.S. Census Division
Economic Indices
For Immediate Release
June 4, 2010
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Stumbles
In May,
However, the West South Central Division Improves Slightly
Arlington, Texas— The Decision Analyst Economic Index for the U.S. dropped
three points in May, falling from 98 in April to 95 in May. At the same time,
the Index for the West South Central Division (including Louisiana) has improved
two points, increasing from a 95 in April to a 97 in May. Since the Decision
Analyst Economic Index tends to foreshadow the U.S. economy by six to 12 months,
it continues to indicate that the economy will be sluggish for the second half
of 2010. Below is the U.S. Economic Index for the past three years.
“May’s Index could be either a minor blip on the recovery
horizon, or it could signal the start of a double-dip recession,” said
Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “Volatility in the
U.S. stock market, the BP oil disaster off Louisiana, the continued housing
foreclosure crisis, and concerns about massive U.S. government debt are making
the average U.S. consumer doubtful about the future. The lack of credit for
millions of small businesses continues to hold back economic growth, and the
failure of the U.S. government to develop and pass a rational energy plan is
a growth inhibitor.”
“Despite all of the negative headlines,” said Thomas, “there
are reasons for optimism. This is a very old recession by historical standards,
and the time has come for a sustained upturn. Millions of Americans are working
tirelessly to do their jobs, run their businesses, improve productivity, cut
costs, and find new markets. These collective efforts are not very visible.
They don’t make the evening news, but these efforts will have a huge impact
on the future performance of the U.S. economy.”
The New England Division’s Index is much higher than the other census
divisions. The East South Central, South Atlantic, and Mountain Divisions are
comparatively weaker than the rest of the country (see map below).
| Three-Year History By Census
Division |
The West South Central Division (including Louisiana) has increased from an
Index of 95 in April to a 97 in May, while the East South Central Division has
remained stable, at an Index of 94 for both April and May. The New England Division
has dropped from an Index of 104 in April to 102 in May.
Census Division Three-Month Moving Average
The Index numbers for the census divisions are a three-month moving average
to smooth out fluctuations due to smaller sample sizes. The reported Index number
averages the current month with the two previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric
model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country
surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the
respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys
each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,
France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation,
Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research
and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy
research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision
optimization. The 32-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst
owns and operates the American Consumer Opinion® Online panel—one
of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than eight
million members.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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