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For Immediate Release December 4, 2009
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index for November 2009 fell, dropping from 96 in October to 94 in November. Since this Index tends to foreshadow the U.S. economy by 9 to 12 months, this downturn in the Economic Index indicates the economy will be very sluggish during the first half of 2010. The Index predicted the bottoming of the U.S. economy evident in the second quarter of 2009. Below is the Economic Index for the past three years:

“The positives are consumers are seeing more activity where they work and prices are remaining relatively stable. The negatives are record-high unemployment and constrained credit availability at all levels. The U.S. economy remains fragile, and any severe shock could send the economy into a downward spiral. The extent and depth of this economic downturn will take years to mend,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The politicians in Washington are anxious to announce that the recession is over and happy times are here again, but the truth is it’s going to take many months before we see strong economic growth (unless the price of oil falls to $30 a barrel),” said Thomas.

Census Divisions

The Pacific, Mountain, East South Central, and South Atlantic Divisions continue to struggle, compared to other sections of the U.S. The New England Division appears to be leading the way out of the recession. The East North Central Division (automotive region) has made recent improvements, presumably due to the U.S. government’s “Cash for Clunkers” program.

 

International Index

The chart below compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices in other countries. Canada and Spain appear to be doing about the same as the U.S., while the emerging markets in China, Brazil, and India have the highest scores of the countries listed. France, Argentina, and Mexico appear to be doing comparatively worse than other countries.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Not all International Indices are made available to the public due to low base sizes.

Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The 31-year-old firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, Decision Analyst owns and operates American Consumer Opinion® Online—one of the largest consumer opinion panels in the world—with more than seven million members.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

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